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New nuclear and gas plants aim to keep the current import-export balance
Nuclear
New nuclear and gas
New nuclear and gas plants keep import levels relatively constant
valve
Stepwise expansion of Gas
Gas power plants are added in years when existing nuclear plants decomission
Nuclear
Small nuclear starting 2040
Starting 2040 small nuclear reactors of 400 MW are added
energy_export
Imports constant
Scenario first results in stable winter imports. After 2040 they start declining
sun
Limited PV build-out
Comparably small build-out of rooftop PV: 500 MW per year
Energy Mix Year
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 69 TWh
2050
Total generation 79 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 64 TWh
2050
Total demand 76 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      2050 Year

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition Year
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Gas
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          2025 Year
          TWh
          Demand
          63.5
          Generation
          68.7
          Deficit
          --
          Import
          --
          Import
          --
          Import atget exceeded
          --
          Generation
          68.7
          Storage reserve used
          --
          PV
          5.1
          PV Roof
          5.1
          PV Alpine
          --
          PV Ground
          --
          Wind
          0.2
          Hydro
          36.2
          Run-of-River
          18.1
          Storage
          18.1
          Biomass
          2.3
          Biomass
          2.3
          CCS Biomass
          --
          Gas
          --
          Market-Gas
          --
          Reserve gas power plants
          --
          Geothermal
          --
          Nuclear
          23
          Nuclear
          23
          New nuclear
          --
          Fossil
          1.9
          Existing fossil fuel power plants
          1.9
          CCS Fossil Fuels
          --
          Hard coal
          --
          Challenges
          warning
          Import target exceeded
          The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2026 - 2041.
          people
          Public opinion
          Public opinion needs to accept new nuclear plants
          nuclear
          Based on availability of new nuclear in 2040
          Earliest possible addition of nuclear in PowerSwitcher is 2040. That is an ambituous timetable
          sun
          Lowering PV build-out
          PV build-out is lower than current reality. It would have to be (actively?) lowered

          The seasonal impact

          Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

          Costs
          Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
          Total production costs
          203 billion
          Accumulated until 2050
          Revenues
          187 billion
          Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
          Subsidies required
          19 billion
          Remaining costs not covered by revenues
          Average cost
          7.2 billion / year
          The annual average of the total cost, 7.2 bn CHF per year, is less than 1% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
          Levelized cost
          We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
          2020s
          2030s
          2040s
          Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

          Levelized Costs of Electricity

          All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

          About the scenario developer
          Christian Wasserfallen (FDP)
          Christian Wasserfallen (FDP)
          Christian Wasserfallen, a member of the Swiss Free Democratic Party (FDP), is known for his pro-business stance on energy policy. He supports market-based solutions and technological innovation to meet Switzerland’s energy needs while ensuring economic competitiveness.
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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          Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich