A solar-focused build-out and moderate growth in other renewables lead to winter imports and a high summer surplus
Focus on rooftop-PV
Build-out focussed on rooftop-PV largely compensates demand growth and nuclear decomissioning (after 60 years)
Accelerate PV build-out smoothly
PV addiditions grow as installation technicians are added. Gradual growths, no jumps, no alpine PV
Wind&hydro: few additions
Wind additions are very limited, hydro capacity doesn't change over time
Gas for last nuclear plant
Gas is needed in winter to compensate decomissioning of last nuclear plant, in 2044
Energy Mix Winter
Production
Demand
Production
2026
Total generation 31.4 TWh
2050
Total generation 37.8 TWh
Demand
2026
Total demand 36.3 TWh
2050
Total demand 46.5 TWh
2050 Winter
Transition Winter
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Geothermal
Nuclear
Fossil
2026 Winter
TWh
Demand
36.3
Generation
31.4
Deficit
--
Import 4.9
Import
4.9
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
31.4
Storage reserve used
--
PV 2.3
PV Roof
2.3
PV Alpine
--
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.2
Hydro 14.8
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
8.5
Biomass 1.1
Biomass
1.1
CCS Biomass
--
Gas --
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear 12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil 0.8
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.8
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2030 - 2050.
Import Dependency
Import needs after nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
High summer surplus
Summer surplus rises from 9 to 22 TWh in 2050. Unclear how much of it can be exported.
Additional costs possible
If summer surplus cannot be exported, the costs per MWh would rise
How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!
The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
257 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
215 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
43 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
9.2 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 9.2 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh
About the scenario developer
Helion
Helion is a leading Swiss company specializing in the installation of solar systems and energy storage solutions. It plays a key role in Switzerland’s energy transition by providing affordable and efficient solar power solutions to homes and businesses.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich
