Strong imports and a summer surplus, coupled with an ambitious build-out of solar and hydro
Cost-minimal solution
This scenario seeks cost-minimal solution for energy system
Imports increase
In spite of solar and hydro build-out import dependency will increase
Solar build-out, accelerating 2040
Solar build-out with focus on roof-top, limited addition of alpine PV
10% increase in hydro
Hydro production is increased by 10% until 2040
Decomissioning end 2043
Nuclear plants are run close to 60 years, 2043 is last productive year of Leibstadt plant
Energy Mix Year
Production
Demand
Production
2025
2050
Demand
2025
2050
2050 Year
Transition Year
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
2025Year
TWh
Demand
NaN
Generation
--
Deficit
--
Import
--
Import
--
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
0
Storage reserve used
--
PV
--
Wind
--
Hydro
--
Biomass
--
Gas
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
--
Fossil
--
Challenges
High Import Dependency
Rising import needs after nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
Not much spare capacity
Higher risk for blackouts as cost-minimizing leads to little spare capacity
Public opinion
Public opinion needs to accept more hydro plants and higher dams
High summer surplus
Summer surplus rises from 9 to 18 TWh in 2050. Unclear how much of it can be exported.
Additional costs possible
If summer surplus cannot be exported, the costs per MWh would rise
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
billion / year
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh
About the scenario developer
ETH Energy Science Center
The Energy Science Center at ETH Zurich is a research hub for interdisciplinary energy studies.Its integrated modeling framework "Nexus-e" enables researchers to simulate and analyze energy system scenarios, helping to guide Switzerland’s energy transition.
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