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Strong imports and a summer surplus, coupled with an ambitious build-out of solar and hydro
money
Cost-minimal solution
This scenario seeks cost-minimal solution for energy system
energy_export
Imports increase
In spite of solar and hydro build-out import dependency will increase
sun
Solar build-out, accelerating 2040
Solar build-out with focus on roof-top, limited addition of alpine PV
water
10% increase in hydro
Hydro production is increased by 10% until 2040
nuclear
Decomissioning end 2043
Nuclear plants are run close to 60 years, 2043 is last productive year of Leibstadt plant
Energy Mix Year
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 72 TWh
2050
Total generation 84 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 64 TWh
2050
Total demand 77 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      2050 Year

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition Year
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          Import
          Storage reserve used
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          2025 Year
          TWh
          Demand
          63.8
          Generation
          72.3
          Deficit
          --
          Import
          --
          Import
          --
          Import atget exceeded
          --
          Generation
          72.3
          Storage reserve used
          --
          PV
          9.1
          PV Roof
          8
          PV Alpine
          1.1
          PV Ground
          --
          Wind
          0.1
          Hydro
          36.6
          Run-of-River
          18.6
          Storage
          18.1
          Biomass
          2.9
          Biomass
          2.9
          CCS Biomass
          --
          Gas
          --
          Market-Gas
          --
          Reserve gas power plants
          --
          Geothermal
          --
          Nuclear
          23
          Nuclear
          23
          New nuclear
          --
          Fossil
          0.6
          Existing fossil fuel power plants
          0.6
          CCS Fossil Fuels
          --
          Hard coal
          --
          Challenges
          warning
          Import target exceeded
          The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2038 - 2050.
          tactic
          High Import Dependency
          Rising import needs after nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
          energy_export
          Not much spare capacity
          Higher risk for blackouts as cost-minimizing leads to little spare capacity
          people
          Public opinion
          Public opinion needs to accept more hydro plants and higher dams
          energy_export
          High summer surplus
          Summer surplus rises from 9 to 18 TWh in 2050. Unclear how much of it can be exported.
          money
          Additional costs possible
          If summer surplus cannot be exported, the costs per MWh would rise

          The seasonal impact

          Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

          Costs
          Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
          Total production costs
          232 billion
          Accumulated until 2050
          Revenues
          195 billion
          Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
          Subsidies required
          36 billion
          Remaining costs not covered by revenues
          Average cost
          8.3 billion / year
          The annual average of the total cost, 8.3 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
          Levelized cost
          We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
          2020s
          2030s
          2040s
          Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

          Levelized Costs of Electricity

          All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

          About the scenario developer
          ETH Energy Science Center
          ETH Energy Science Center
          The Energy Science Center at ETH Zurich is a research hub for interdisciplinary energy studies.Its integrated modeling framework "Nexus-e" enables researchers to simulate and analyze energy system scenarios, helping to guide Switzerland’s energy transition.
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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