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Strong imports and a summer surplus, coupled with an ambitious build-out of solar and hydro
money
Cost-minimal solution
This scenario seeks cost-minimal solution for energy system
energy_export
Imports increase
In spite of solar and hydro build-out import dependency will increase
sun
Solar build-out, accelerating 2040
Solar build-out with focus on roof-top, limited addition of alpine PV
water
10% increase in hydro
Hydro production is increased by 10% until 2040
nuclear
Decomissioning end 2043
Nuclear plants are run close to 60 years, 2043 is last productive year of Leibstadt plant
Energy Mix
Production
Demand
Production
2024
Total generation 71 TWh
2050
Total generation 84 TWh
Demand
2024
Total demand 64 TWh
2050
Total demand 77 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      The assumed electricity production and demand in 2050

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          Import
          Storage reserve used
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          Challenges
          tactic
          High Import Dependency
          Rising import needs after nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
          energy_export
          Not much spare capacity
          Higher risk for blackouts as cost-minimizing leads to little spare capacity
          people
          Public opinion
          Public opinion needs to accept more hydro plants and higher dams
          energy_export
          High summer surplus
          Summer surplus rises from 9 to 18 TWh in 2050. Unclear how much of it can be exported.
          money
          Additional costs possible
          If summer surplus cannot be exported, the costs per MWh would rise
          About the scenario developer
          ETH Energy Science Center
          ETH Energy Science Center
          The Energy Science Center at ETH Zurich is a research hub for interdisciplinary energy studies.Its integrated modeling framework "Nexus-e" enables researchers to simulate and analyze energy system scenarios, helping to guide Switzerland’s energy transition.
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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