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Solar expansion, moderate growth in other renewables, and hydrogen to absorb a larger share of the summer surplus
sun
Replace nuclear with solar
Rooftop Solar expansion and increasing imports compensate relatively early nuclear shutdown
nuclear
Early shutdown nuclear
Nuclear lifetime is limited to 50 years per plant (55 for Beznau)
energy_export
Import dependency
High import dependency with up to 10 TWh of necessary winter imports
valve
Gas-to-Power as Backup
Gas-to-Power used as winter-backup during transition phase
Energy Mix Year
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 67 TWh
2050
Total generation 95 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 66 TWh
2050
Total demand 89 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      2050 Year

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition Year
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          Import
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Gas
          Geothermal
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          2025 Year
          TWh
          Demand
          65.6
          Generation
          66.9
          Deficit
          --
          Import
          --
          Import
          --
          Import atget exceeded
          --
          Generation
          66.9
          Storage reserve used
          --
          PV
          6.3
          PV Roof
          6.3
          PV Alpine
          --
          PV Ground
          --
          Wind
          0.4
          Hydro
          35.8
          Run-of-River
          18.1
          Storage
          17.7
          Biomass
          2
          Biomass
          2
          CCS Biomass
          --
          Gas
          0.6
          Market-Gas
          0.6
          Reserve gas power plants
          --
          Geothermal
          --
          Nuclear
          20.1
          Nuclear
          20.1
          New nuclear
          --
          Fossil
          1.7
          Existing fossil fuel power plants
          1.7
          CCS Fossil Fuels
          --
          Hard coal
          --
          Challenges
          warning
          Import target exceeded
          The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2026 - 2050.
          tactic
          High Import Dependency
          Rising Import needs after early nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
          valve
          Early need for gas plants
          (Transitory) Gas plants needed early, in line with nuclear decomissioning
          money
          increased price dependency
          Higher import needs result in higher impact of international prices

          The seasonal impact

          Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

          Costs
          Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
          Total production costs
          236 billion
          Accumulated until 2050
          Revenues
          200 billion
          Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
          Subsidies required
          31 billion
          Remaining costs not covered by revenues
          Average cost
          8.4 billion / year
          The annual average of the total cost, 8.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
          Levelized cost
          We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
          2020s
          2030s
          2040s
          Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

          Levelized Costs of Electricity

          All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

          About the scenario developer
          Swissolar
          Swissolar
          Swissolar is the Swiss solar industry association, representing companies involved in solar power and advocating for the expansion of solar energy. The organization promotes policies and innovations that support the broader adoption of solar technology across the country.
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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          Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich