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Solar expansion, moderate growth in other renewables, and hydrogen to absorb a larger share of the summer surplus
sun
Replace nuclear with solar
Rooftop Solar expansion and increasing imports compensate relatively early nuclear shutdown
nuclear
Early shutdown nuclear
Nuclear lifetime is limited to 50 years per plant (55 for Beznau)
energy_export
Import dependency
High import dependency with up to 10 TWh of necessary winter imports
valve
Gas-to-Power as Backup
Gas-to-Power used as winter-backup during transition phase
Energy Mix
Production
Demand
Production
2024
Total generation 69 TWh
2050
Total generation 95 TWh
Demand
2024
Total demand 65 TWh
2050
Total demand 89 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      The assumed electricity production and demand in 2050

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          Import
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Gas
          Geothermal
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          Challenges
          tactic
          High Import Dependency
          Rising Import needs after early nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
          valve
          Early need for gas plants
          (Transitory) Gas plants needed early, in line with nuclear decomissioning
          money
          increased price dependency
          Higher import needs result in higher impact of international prices
          About the scenario developer
          Swissolar
          Swissolar
          Swissolar is the Swiss solar industry association, representing companies involved in solar power and advocating for the expansion of solar energy. The organization promotes policies and innovations that support the broader adoption of solar technology across the country.
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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          Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich