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Significant expansion of 1000-1300 wind turbines and tripling of PV, supported by 3-5 gas power plants in winter

renew
Axpo Energy Reports - Differences
Numbers in Power Switcher can be different - simplifications and different perspective possible
snow_flake
Wind power expansion is essential
Wind energy with high winter electricity share very advantageous - substantially realistic only from 2035 at earliest
sun
Rooftop PV accepted and feasible
Tripling of rooftop PV - only option for expansion in the coming years
valve
Gas complements renewables
Flexibility as good complement to renewables, gas storage necessary
sun
Open field PV where possible
Significant cost advantages exist, but areas must be enabled
water
Preservation of hydropower
Hydropower remains decisive pillar, but can hardly be expanded further
power_coord
New consumers drive demand
Electromobility, heat pumps and data centers increase demand
renew
Goal of energy law are met (for 2045)
This requires major support for wind turbines and continued PV expansion

Energy Mix Winter

Production
Demand
Production
2026
Total generation 32.6 TWh
2050
Total generation 40.2 TWh
Demand
2026
Total demand 36.6 TWh
2050
Total demand 45.4 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Geothermal
Nuclear
Fossil
2026 Winter
TWh
Demand
36.6
Generation
32.6
Deficit
--
Import
3.9
Import
3.9
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
32.6
Storage reserve used
--
PV
3.1
PV Roof
3
PV Alpine
0.1
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.2
Hydro
15.2
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
8.9
Biomass
1.1
Biomass
1.1
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
--
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
0.8
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.8
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--

Challenges

warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2033 - 2050.
people
Local wind acceptance low
Lots of wind projects are stopped and delayed by opposition and lawsuits
tactic
Import Dependency
A certain import need remains, neighbor countries need to produce export surplus
cloud
Weather Dependency
System gets more and more weather-dependent with wind, solar and hydro
tactic
Reliable Backup Needed
Backup, e.g. gas or nuclear may be required when imports are limited and renewables fall short
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
245 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
214 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
44 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
8.7 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 8.7 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
Axpo
Axpo
Axpo is Switzerland's largest power producer and an international leader in energy trading as well as in the marketing of solar and wind power. Around 7,000 employees combine experience and expertise with a passion for innovation and the pursuit of ever better solutions. The “Renewables” scenario is one of several official scenarios from Axpo for a renewable energy future for Switzerland.
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A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
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Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich
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