Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown
PV addtions at current pace
Rooftop PV buildout at current speed
Slow change to current system
With slow changes and no controversial new plants, only imports are left to cover increasing demand and decreasing capacities
Demand rises over time
Electromobility and heat pumps will increase demand more than higher efficiency can offset
Winter-imports increase
Imports will fill in for the missing production in winter - as long as they can
Risk of blackouts increases
Once imports are maxed out the risk of blackouts rises strongly
Energy Mix Year
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 73 TWh
2050
Total generation 73 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 63 TWh
2050
Total demand 83 TWh
2050 Year
Transition Year
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Deficit
Import
Import atget exceeded
Storage reserve used
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Fossil
2025 Year
TWh
Demand
63.2
Generation
72.9
Deficit
--
Import --
Import
--
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
72.9
Storage reserve used
--
PV 9.5
PV Roof
9.5
PV Alpine
--
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.2
Hydro 36
Run-of-River
18.3
Storage
17.7
Biomass 2.3
Biomass
2.3
CCS Biomass
--
Gas --
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear 23
Nuclear
23
New nuclear
--
Fossil 1.9
Existing fossil fuel power plants
1.9
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2033 - 2050.
High import dependency
This scenario has the highest import dependency. Lots of power from EU will be needed.
No reliable backup
No backup will be available for bad weather conditions or if EU doesn't want to export
Blackouts likely, latest 2040s
Due to missing production facilities blackouts will become more and more likely
Blackouts costly
The costs of blackouts will outweigh the lower investments made
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
236 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
198 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
32 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
8.4 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 8.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh
About the scenario developer
Axpo
Axpo is Switzerland's largest power producer and an international leader in energy trading as well as in the marketing of solar and wind power. Around 7,000 employees combine experience and expertise with a passion for innovation and the pursuit of ever better solutions. The "Business as Usual" scenario illustrates what would happen if no changes are made and the current course is maintained.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich