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Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown
sun
PV addtions at current pace
Rooftop PV buildout at current speed
tactic
Slow change to current system
Make only slow changes to current system. Don't build anything controversial
power_coord
Demand rises over time
Electromobility and heat pumps will increase demand more than higher efficiency can offset
globe
Winter-imports increase
Imports will fill in for the missing production in winter - as long as they can
blackout
Risk of blackouts increases
Once imports are maxed out the risk of blackouts rises strongly
Energy Mix
Production
Demand
Production
2024
Total generation 71 TWh
2050
Total generation 73 TWh
Demand
2024
Total demand 63 TWh
2050
Total demand 83 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      The assumed electricity production and demand in 2050

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          Deficit
          Import
          Storage reserve used
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          Challenges
          renew
          High import dependency
          This scenario has the highest import dependency. Lots of power from EU will be needed.
          tactic
          No reliable backup
          No backup will be available for bad weather conditions or if EU doesn't want to export
          deficit
          Blackouts likely, latest 2040s
          Due to missing production facilities blackouts will become more and more likely
          blackout
          Blackouts costly
          The costs of blackouts will outweigh the lower investments made
          About the scenario developer
          Axpo
          Axpo
          Axpo is Switzerland's largest power producer and an international leader in energy trading as well as in the marketing of solar and wind power. Around 7,000 employees combine experience and expertise with a passion for innovation and the pursuit of ever better solutions. The "Business as Usual" scenario illustrates what would happen if no changes are made and the current course is maintained.
          Explore other scenarios
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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          Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich