Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown
PV addtions at current pace
Rooftop PV buildout at current speed
Slow change to current system
Make only slow changes to current system. Don't build anything controversial
Demand rises over time
Electromobility and heat pumps will increase demand more than higher efficiency can offset
Winter-imports increase
Imports will fill in for the missing production in winter - as long as they can
Risk of blackouts increases
Once imports are maxed out the risk of blackouts rises strongly
Energy Mix
Production
Demand
Production
2024
Total generation 71 TWh
2050
Total generation 73 TWh
Demand
2024
Total demand 63 TWh
2050
Total demand 83 TWh
The assumed electricity production and demand in 2050
Transition
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Deficit
Import
Storage reserve used
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Fossil
Challenges
High import dependency
This scenario has the highest import dependency. Lots of power from EU will be needed.
No reliable backup
No backup will be available for bad weather conditions or if EU doesn't want to export
Blackouts likely, latest 2040s
Due to missing production facilities blackouts will become more and more likely
Blackouts costly
The costs of blackouts will outweigh the lower investments made
About the scenario developer
Axpo
Axpo is Switzerland's largest power producer and an international leader in energy trading as well as in the marketing of solar and wind power. Around 7,000 employees combine experience and expertise with a passion for innovation and the pursuit of ever better solutions. The "Business as Usual" scenario illustrates what would happen if no changes are made and the current course is maintained.
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