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Without increased investments, winter import dependency will rise strongly, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown
sun
PV addtions at current pace
Rooftop PV buildout at current speed
tactic
Slow change to current system
With slow changes and no controversial new plants, only imports are left to cover increasing demand and decreasing capacities
power_coord
Demand rises over time
Electromobility and heat pumps will increase demand more than higher efficiency can offset
globe
Winter-imports increase
Imports will fill in for the missing production in winter - as long as they can
blackout
Risk of blackouts increases
Once imports are maxed out the risk of blackouts rises strongly
Energy Mix Winter
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 32.2 TWh
2050
Total generation 27.2 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 36 TWh
2050
Total demand 45.5 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:
2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:
Transition Winter
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Deficit
Import
Import atget exceeded
Storage reserve used
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Fossil
2025 Winter
TWh
Demand
36
Generation
32.2
Deficit
--
Import
3.8
Import
3.8
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
32.2
Storage reserve used
--
PV
2.9
PV Roof
2.9
PV Alpine
--
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.1
Hydro
14.9
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
8.5
Biomass
1.2
Biomass
1.2
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
--
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
0.9
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.9
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
warning
Deficit
In 2048 - 2050 there may be power outages.
warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2033 - 2050.
renew
High import dependency
This scenario has the highest import dependency. Lots of power from EU will be needed.
tactic
No reliable backup
No backup will be available for bad weather conditions or if EU doesn't want to export
deficit
Blackouts likely, latest 2040s
Due to missing production facilities blackouts will become more and more likely
blackout
Blackouts costly
The costs of blackouts will outweigh the lower investments made
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
236 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
198 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
32 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
8.4 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 8.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
Axpo
Axpo
Axpo is Switzerland's largest power producer and an international leader in energy trading as well as in the marketing of solar and wind power. Around 7,000 employees combine experience and expertise with a passion for innovation and the pursuit of ever better solutions. The "Business as Usual" scenario illustrates what would happen if no changes are made and the current course is maintained.
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Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich