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Robust solar build-out and moderate development of other renewables. Green gas as winter-backup
sun
Solar and hydro as main technologies
Almost 90% of generation 2050 will be solar and hydro
renew
Hydrogen from solar surplus
Hydrogen is produced in summer to store energy for winter generation
valve
Hydrogen/gas as winter backup
In winter, natural gas or hydrogen can power gas turbines
sun
Solar build out
The solar capacity is increased seven-fold until 2050
sun
PV: Rooftop, ground-mounted + alpine
Solar build-out makes use of all PV options
energy_export
Low Import dependency
Import dependency decreases over time
Energy Mix Year
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 72 TWh
2050
Total generation 101 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 65 TWh
2050
Total demand 93 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      2050 Year

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition Year
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Gas
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          2025 Year
          TWh
          Demand
          65.4
          Generation
          72.5
          Deficit
          --
          Import
          --
          Import
          --
          Import atget exceeded
          --
          Generation
          72.5
          Storage reserve used
          --
          PV
          8.4
          PV Roof
          7.6
          PV Alpine
          0.4
          PV Ground
          0.4
          Wind
          0.4
          Hydro
          36.3
          Run-of-River
          18.4
          Storage
          17.9
          Biomass
          2.5
          Biomass
          2.5
          CCS Biomass
          --
          Gas
          --
          Market-Gas
          --
          Reserve gas power plants
          --
          Geothermal
          --
          Nuclear
          23
          Nuclear
          23
          New nuclear
          --
          Fossil
          1.9
          Existing fossil fuel power plants
          1.9
          CCS Fossil Fuels
          --
          Hard coal
          --
          Challenges
          energy_export
          Summer Surplus
          If summer surplus cannot be exported, related revenues will be lost and overall energy bill for Switzerland will rise
          tactic
          Solar and hydro need winter addition
          Gas power plants are necessary to secure winter supply
          sun
          Open field solar needs space
          Current Swiss regulation strongly limits spaces for ground mounted solar
          valve
          Electricity surplus in Summer
          Despite hydrogen production, the summer surplus might be too high to integrate into the system

          The seasonal impact

          Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

          Costs
          Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
          Total production costs
          236 billion
          Accumulated until 2050
          Revenues
          214 billion
          Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
          Subsidies required
          38 billion
          Remaining costs not covered by revenues
          Average cost
          8.4 billion / year
          The annual average of the total cost, 8.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
          Levelized cost
          We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
          2020s
          2030s
          2040s
          Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

          Levelized Costs of Electricity

          All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

          About the scenario developer
          Jörg Grossen
          Jörg Grossen
          Jörg Grossen ist der Präsident der Grünliberalen Partei (GLP) in der Schweiz, bekannt für pragmatische Lösungen zu Energie- und Klimafragen. Mit seinem Hintergrund als Ingenieur setzt er sich für Innovationen im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien ein und für eine Balance zwischen ökologischer Nachhaltigkeit und wirtschaftlichem Wachstum.
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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          Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich