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Moderate build-out of renewables, gas power plants replace nuclear for winter generation

valve
Gas power plants in winter
Gas power plants replace nuclear power
renew
Gas power plants in winter
Well expansion of biomass - threefold increase of capacity
power_coord
Moderate increase of demand
Demand increases moderately, due to heat pumps and electromobility
sun
Moderate increase of demand
The PV feed-in is lower at 18 TWh in 2050 compared to other scenarios

Energy Mix Winter

Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 31.4 TWh
2050
Total generation 39.5 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 34.6 TWh
2050
Total demand 44.1 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:

2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:

Transition Winter

The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Geothermal
Nuclear
Fossil
2025 Winter
TWh
Demand
34.6
Generation
31.3
Deficit
--
Import
3.2
Import
3.2
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
31.3
Storage reserve used
--
PV
2.2
PV Roof
2.1
PV Alpine
0.1
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.1
Hydro
14.7
Run-of-River
6.2
Storage
8.6
Biomass
1.1
Biomass
1.1
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
--
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
1
Existing fossil fuel power plants
1
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--

Challenges

warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2031 - 2048.
renew
High imports need to be possible
Necessary imports of over 10 TWh are only feasible if grid capacities and generation in neighboring countries are sufficient
blackout
Import dependency reduces domestic resilience
In case of unfavourable weather or import limitation, winter supply is at risk
valve
Acceptance of gas power plants
Gas power plants must either operate on renewable gas or achieve societal acceptance for using fossil gas
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions

Costs

Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
212 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
187 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
27 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
7.6 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 7.6 bn CHF per year, is less than 1% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
VSE (Swiss Association of Electricity Companies)
VSE (Swiss Association of Electricity Companies)
The Swiss Association of Electricity Companies (VSE) represents the interests of Switzerland’s energy utilities. It promotes a secure, competitive, and sustainable energy supply and advocates for policies that support the transition to renewable energy.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich
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