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A renewable and exchange-based scenario, with solar and hydro build-out leading to winter imports and significant summer exports to neighboring countries
water
Massive increase hydro power
Hydro power is increased 70% until 2050
sun
Quick ramp-up rooftop PV
More than 3 GW rooftop PV are added annually until 2030, then declining to 900 MW
energy_export
No Imports
Winter imports disappear as domestic production surges
Nuclear
Decomissioning end 2043
Nuclear plants are run close to 60 years, 2043 is last productive year of Leibstadt plant
Energy Mix
Production
Demand
Production
2024
Total generation 75 TWh
2050
Total generation 115 TWh
Demand
2024
Total demand 63 TWh
2050
Total demand 80 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
    Cons:
      The assumed electricity production and demand in 2050

      Pros:
        Cons:
          Transition
          The energy mix as we transition to 2050
          Demand
          Import
          PV
          Wind
          Hydro
          Biomass
          Gas
          Geothermal
          Nuclear
          Fossil
          Challenges
          people
          Public opinion
          A lot more hydro needed (+70%!) - this will strongly test public opinion
          tactic
          Building challenge hydro
          The good locations are already taken. Adding hydro plants in this scale is technical challenge.
          sun
          Build-out speed solar
          Build-out speed of solar until 2030 is double the pace of record year 2023. Hard to achieve
          energy_export
          High summer surplus
          Summer surplus rises from 9 to 39 TWh in 2050. Unlikely that such an amount can be exported.
          money
          Additional costs likely
          If summer surplus cannot be exported, related revenues will be lost and overall energy bill for Switzerland will rise
          About the scenario developer
          Rudolf Rechsteiner (SP)
          Rudolf Rechsteiner (SP)
          Rudolf Rechsteiner is a member of the Swiss Social Democratic Party (SP) and a long-standing advocate for renewable energy. He has been influential in pushing for the expansion of wind and solar power in Switzerland, emphasizing the importance of a sustainable and socially responsible energy transition.
          Explore other scenarios
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          Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
          Business as usual Without increased investments, winter imports will rise to unsustainable levels, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

          Legend

          A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
          HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
          D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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