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Electricity consumption is rising substantially, winter supply relies on gas power plants, imports and moderate expansion of renewables
power_coord
Electrification challenge
Electrification places ever-growing demands on the power system
energy_export
Not winter supply without imports
A certain dependency from neighbor countries is sensible for full winter supply
sun
Peak-shaving for PV surpluses
In addition to storage, peak shaving may be necessary in summer with PV surpluses
valve
Gas power plants against winter gap
Climate-neutral generation from gas requires certificates, carbon-capture-and-storage or renewables gases
Energy Mix Winter
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 32.6 TWh
2050
Total generation 43.4 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 36.8 TWh
2050
Total demand 51.3 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:
2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:
Transition Winter
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Nuclear
Fossil
2025 Winter
TWh
Demand
36.8
Generation
32.7
Deficit
--
Import
4.3
Import
4.3
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
32.7
Storage reserve used
--
PV
2.9
PV Roof
2.7
PV Alpine
0.1
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.1
Hydro
15.1
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
8.8
Biomass
1.1
Biomass
1.1
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
0.3
Market-Gas
0.3
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
1
Existing fossil fuel power plants
1
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2027 - 2050.
power_coord
Substantial increase in demand
Total energy consumption is decreasing thanks to electrification and increased efficiency, but this leads to a substantially higher electricity demand
energy_export
Agreement with EU
Electricity trade with neighboring countries thanks to an electricity agreements with EU makes the system more resilient and secure
sun
Surpluses in summer
More flexibility such as storage in the system is needed to make sensible use of summer surpluses
valve
Gas power plants against winter gap
Gas power plants must be used as a supplement in winter, with a preference for climate-neutral operation
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
254 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
214 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
38 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
9.1 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 9.1 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
VSE (Swiss Association of Electricity Companies)
VSE (Swiss Association of Electricity Companies)
The Swiss Association of Electricity Companies (VSE) represents the interests of Switzerland’s energy utilities. It promotes a secure, competitive, and sustainable energy supply and advocates for policies that support the transition to renewable energy.
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A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
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Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
Business as usual Without increased investments, winter import dependency will rise strongly, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich