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The Ministry of Energy envisions an ambitious solar expansion, winter imports, and a few other renewable sources
sun
Solar, hydro and imports
The BFE scenario covers rising demand with solar, hydro and imports
energy_export
Imports increase
In spite of solar and hydro build-out import dependency will increase
sun
Solar build-out, accelerating 2040
Solar build-out with focus on roof-top, limited addition of alpine PV
water
7.5% increase in hydro
Hydro production is increased by 7.5% until 2050
nuclear
Decomissioning end 2043
Nuclear plants are run close to 60 years, 2043 is last productive year of Leibstadt plant
Energy Mix Winter
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 31.4 TWh
2050
Total generation 34.4 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 35.7 TWh
2050
Total demand 43.3 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:
2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:
Transition Winter
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal
Nuclear
Fossil
2025 Winter
TWh
Demand
35.7
Generation
31.5
Deficit
--
Import
4.3
Import
4.3
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
31.5
Storage reserve used
--
PV
2
PV Roof
2
PV Alpine
--
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.1
Hydro
15.1
Run-of-River
6.4
Storage
8.7
Biomass
1.2
Biomass
1.2
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
--
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil
0.9
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.9
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2029 - 2050.
tactic
High Import Dependency
Rising import needs after nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
people
Public opinion
Public opinion needs to accept more hydro plants and higher dams
energy_export
High summer surplus
Summer surplus rises from 9 to 18 TWh in 2050. Unclear how much of it can be exported.
money
Additional costs possible
If summer surplus cannot be exported, the costs per MWh would rise
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
225 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
196 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
26 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
8 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 8 bn CHF per year, is less than 1% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
BFE
BFE
The Swiss Federal Office of Energy (BFE) is responsible for shaping Switzerland's energy policy. Its Energy Perspectives 2050+ scenario outlines possible paths to a sustainable energy future, focusing on reducing fossil fuel use and increasing renewable energy production to meet climate goals.
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Axpo Renewables A balanced build-out of renewables, focusing on solar and wind. Green gas as winter-backup

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
Axpo Landscape Ambitious nuclear and rooftop solar expansion to avoid landscape-impacting wind and alpine solar units

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
Energy Law ("Mantelerlass") Targets of 35 TWh of renewable energy by 2035 and 45 TWh by 2050, plus 6 TWh of renewable winter electricity, of which 2 TWh hydropower

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
Business as usual Without increased investments, winter import dependency will rise strongly, making blackouts likely after the nuclear shutdown

Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich