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Solar expansion, moderate growth in other renewables, and hydrogen to absorb a larger share of the summer surplus
sun
Replace nuclear with solar
Rooftop Solar expansion and increasing imports compensate relatively early nuclear shutdown
nuclear
Early shutdown nuclear
Nuclear lifetime is limited to 50 years per plant (55 for Beznau)
energy_export
Import dependency
High import dependency with up to 10 TWh of necessary winter imports
valve
Gas-to-Power as Backup
Gas-to-Power used as winter-backup during transition phase
Energy Mix Winter
Production
Demand
Production
2025
Total generation 30.1 TWh
2050
Total generation 37.5 TWh
Demand
2025
Total demand 36.9 TWh
2050
Total demand 44.1 TWh

Pros and Cons
Pros:
Cons:
2050 Winter

Pros:
Cons:
Transition Winter
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Gas
Geothermal
Nuclear
Fossil
2025 Winter
TWh
Demand
36.9
Generation
30.1
Deficit
--
Import
6.8
Import
5
Import atget exceeded
1.8
Generation
30.1
Storage reserve used
--
PV
1.9
PV Roof
1.9
PV Alpine
--
PV Ground
--
Wind
0.3
Hydro
14.8
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
8.5
Biomass
1.1
Biomass
1.1
CCS Biomass
--
Gas
0.5
Market-Gas
0.5
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear
10.7
Nuclear
10.7
New nuclear
--
Fossil
0.8
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.8
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
warning
Import target exceeded
The energy law sets a non-binding 5 TWh import target, which will be exceeded in 2026 - 2050.
tactic
High Import Dependency
Rising Import needs after early nuclear decomissioning require neighbor surplus and EU agreement
valve
Early need for gas plants
(Transitory) Gas plants needed early, in line with nuclear decomissioning
money
increased price dependency
Higher import needs result in higher impact of international prices
Season

The seasonal impact

Looking at winter, summer, and full year in an energy scenario reveals seasonal variations in demand (e.g., heating vs. cooling) and supply (e.g., solar availability), helping optimize resource use and ensure system resilience year-round.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

Simulate conditions

Stress Test

In the stress test, we simulate supply under particularly adverse extreme situations. The following two situations are modeled:

  1. Monthly bad weather: This examines a worst-case situation: How much production is lost if the worst possible weather conditions occur in each month. This is a monthly perspective to check whether a deficit could occur in any of the winter months. Details on the modeling can be found in the About section.

  2. Import restrictions: This assumes that imports are limited. The availability of French nuclear energy is limited to 60%, gas availability in Europe to 80%, and the grid's import capacities to 40%. Other settings are possible in Expert Mode.

How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!

The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.

Bad weather conditions
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
236 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
200 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
31 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
8.4 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 8.4 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh

Levelized Costs of Electricity

All costs in the following section are Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE), a key metric for comparing energy sources. LCOE includes capital, operational, and fuel costs over a plant’s lifetime, offering a transparent view of electricity generation expenses. All values are real 2024.

About the scenario developer
Swissolar
Swissolar
Swissolar is the Swiss solar industry association, representing companies involved in solar power and advocating for the expansion of solar energy. The organization promotes policies and innovations that support the broader adoption of solar technology across the country.
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Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
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Legend

A projection of the energy mix, demand and production for the year 2050 for the given scenario.
HydroPVNuclearWindGasBiomassFossilGeothermal Other
D : Demand • P : Production • Δ : Production Surplus
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich