Maximum additions of wind and alpine PV as well as more hydro power balance strongly increasing demand. Few imports needed.
Lots of wind and alpine PV
Maximum buildout of alpine PV and wind to match strong increase in electromobility and heat pumps
~150 turbines each year
Adding ~150 wind turbines each year strongly increases renewable winter production
PV: alpine only
Focus PV build-out on the alps to maximize contribution in winter. No roof-top added
Some hydro added
Addition of hydro where possible, focus on storage plants
Low import dependency
Only little imports needed thanks to strong domestic build-out
Energy Mix Winter
Production
Demand
Production
2026
Total generation 40 TWh
2050
Total generation 63.2 TWh
Demand
2026
Total demand 41.9 TWh
2050
Total demand 65.1 TWh
2050 Winter
Transition Winter
The energy mix as we transition to 2050
Demand
Import
Import atget exceeded
PV
Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Fossil
2026 Winter
TWh
Demand
41.9
Generation
40.1
Deficit
--
Import 1.9
Import
1.9
Import atget exceeded
--
Generation
40.1
Storage reserve used
--
PV 4.7
PV Roof
0.6
PV Alpine
4
PV Ground
--
Wind
5.7
Hydro 15.6
Run-of-River
6.3
Storage
9.3
Biomass 1.2
Biomass
0.9
CCS Biomass
0.3
Gas --
Market-Gas
--
Reserve gas power plants
--
Geothermal
--
Nuclear 12.2
Nuclear
12.2
New nuclear
--
Fossil 0.7
Existing fossil fuel power plants
0.7
CCS Fossil Fuels
--
Hard coal
--
Challenges
Expensive scenario
Alpine solar and hydro additions are expensive, the scenario adds a lot of them
Public opinion
Big shift in public opition needed to build a lot of wind and alpine PV
Weather dependency
System quickly gets more weather-dependent with wind, solar and hydro
How Resilient Is This Scenario? Put It to the Test!
The scenario above assumes normal weather and stable energy imports, but what happens when extreme conditions hit? A harsh winter or import limitations from the EU could impact production, increase demand, and even lead to power shortages. Stress-test your scenario under these challenging conditions and see how it holds up in the face of real-world uncertainties.
Costs
Total Costs, Revenues and Subsidies in CHF until 2050.
Total production costs
321 billion
Accumulated until 2050
Revenues
228 billion
Assuming an average power price of 75 CHF/MWn
Subsidies required
105 billion
Remaining costs not covered by revenues
Average cost
11.5 billion / year
The annual average of the total cost, 11.5 bn CHF per year, is less than 2% of the (estimated) Swiss GDP in 2024 (825 bn. CHF).
Levelized cost
We use Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE). Future costs may rise as cheaper plants are replaced. High demand and costly technologies like rooftop PV can further increase costs. See Expert Mode for details on technology costs.
2020s
2030s
2040s
Levelized cost (LCOE) ⌀ CHF/MWh
About the scenario developer
Georg Schwarz (ENSI)
Georg Schwarz, the former Deputy Director of the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI), is an expert in energy systems and sustainability. Through his blog, georgschwarz.ch, he presents scenarios for a climate-neutral Switzerland. His approach emphasizes replacing fossil fuels with heat pumps for heating and electric vehicles for mobility. Unlike other models, Schwarz’s scenario takes a more conservative stance on energy savings and efficiency gains, projecting a significant increase in electricity demand—about 80% higher by 2050.
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Methodology reviewed by ETH Zürich
